Service Sectors: Tertiary and Quaternary

In today's post-industrial society, the economy heavily relies on the Service Sectors as the tertiary (opens in a new tab) and quaternary (opens in a new tab), which encompass service-based industries driven by information and knowledge-intensive activities, respectively. Many professions in these sectors could potentially be automated within a few years by advanced AI technologies like Large Language Models (e.g. ChatGPT), as they primarily require access to information, reasoning, and specialized knowledge.

While automation may not entirely replace human workers, it could significantly reduce the workforce needed in various fields within the tertiary sector, such as law, accounting, engineering, consulting, sales, management, finance, design, education, writing and so on. The quaternary sector, which includes research, innovation, and information technology, may also experience workforce reductions as AI continues to advance.

According to research reported by the BBC (opens in a new tab), this shift could lead to approximately 300 million job losses worldwide. Although new opportunities may arise, such as AI software management or AI sales consultation, it's unlikely that these new roles would sufficiently compensate for the massive unemployment surge in such a short timeframe. AI, by design, aims to achieve more with less effort and fewer errors, leading to exponential growth in its capabilities and impact on the job market.